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Small Cabin Forum / General Forum / Lumber prices have spiked!
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toyota_mdt_tech
Member
# Posted: 3 Apr 2021 21:05
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Went to Home Depot today to pick up a few items before my cabin run next weekend and though, not looking for wood, looked at it to get a shock. Clear cedar 2X6 decking in a 16 footer is $65 for a single board.
A premium 2X4 8 footer was over $6. Cedar such as the 5/4 and 2X6 decking is repulsive. If I needed a deck, I'd sheet over with plywood till prices settled down.

I'm needing 20 4X4's (non treated) or 24 2X6 and about 10 sheets of plywood. Oh well, I am committed and doing it.

Nobadays
Member
# Posted: 3 Apr 2021 22:35
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I needed 2 sheets of 3/4" PT plywood. Last year it was $48/sheet now it's $81/sheet!! You gotta be kidding! I needed up buying exterior 3/4" (for planter boxes) it won't last as many years and truly maybe the savings wasn't worth it... $67/sheet for that!

We had plans for a deck on the west side of the cabin and an equipment cover (6 x 6"x6" posts and a roof) but I think this year it's going to be hiking and fishing mostly. Will put in the upstairs bathroom.... hey at 66 what can I say... rather not negotiate the staircase at night!

paulz
Member
# Posted: 4 Apr 2021 03:30
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What's worse, having these prices stay like this, or having them return to previous levels 6 months after you've bought?

ICC
Member
# Posted: 4 Apr 2021 09:19
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Of great interest to me is that if prices were to drop back to 2019 levels, what is going to happen to the extra $24K (for higher cost materials) that someone has paid for their new house when new ones can be built for less?

Nobadays
Member
# Posted: 4 Apr 2021 10:17
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Quoting: ICC
what is going to happen to the extra $24K (for higher cost materials) that someone has paid for their new house when new ones can be built for less?


My wife and I were just talking about this. Gonna be a lot of people upside down on some new homes! I'm not sure the current lumber prices are sustainable, I hope not. But what does that do to the economy? Our area here in AZ the new home building is crazy!

ICC
Member
# Posted: 4 Apr 2021 10:29 - Edited by: ICC
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I drove into the big city yesterday and took a slight detour when leaving. I drove through an area that 1-1/2 years ago was desert. Now there are a hundred new homes with more being built. Some huge ones.

One thing of note is that they are all being built with wall sections that were constructed offsite someplace. The onsite crew assembles the wall sections and then sheaths them with OSB. There were no sticks or sheets of building materials laying around. I guess the assembled wall sections are less prone to walking off than piles of loose materials would be. Concrete roof tiles. Second story using floor trusses. Concrete slab foundation; typical for here.

toyota_mdt_tech
Member
# Posted: 4 Apr 2021 17:14 - Edited by: toyota_mdt_tech
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Wow, very volatile prices. I priced 4X4's a few weeks ago, was 12.25, now 14.11. 2X6X8 was 11.75, now 12.85, 15/32 plywood was 46 a sheet, now 54.45 a sheet, I pick it up on friday, how much price increase between now and then? I priced it at the store I am buying it from.

skootamattaschmidty
Member
# Posted: 4 Apr 2021 17:21
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I'm working on an outdoor kitchen at my home. An 8' 2x4 PT was $14.29. For the 12 eight footers and 4 12' PT deck boards I bought it was about $300. I'm in southwestern Ontario...I couldn't imagine building a deck etc with today's prices! Just insane. Of note I will say 1x12 rough pine (ie barn board) hasn't gone up exponentially. A 10 foot board is about $14.40. It was about $12.50 last year...

gcrank1
Member
# Posted: 4 Apr 2021 21:40
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We have been planning on building a 10 wide x 24 long PT deck at the cabin this spring, simple floating on block, top of basic 5/4 PT deck about about 1' above grade.
As of Yesterday we decided 8' wide would be Ok. I have not priced the lumber at the local big-box building centers....

Shadyacres
Member
# Posted: 5 Apr 2021 20:11
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I just keep cutting lumber with my mill and stockpiling. May not be stamped but doesn't matter for what I use it for. Every time I cut an 8 foot 2 x4 I tell myself I just saved another 5 dollar bill. May have to up that a little. Think I cut a couple hundred this year already. Let them dry a couple years then plane if needed and ready for use.

toyota_mdt_tech
Member
# Posted: 5 Apr 2021 21:07
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Quoting: Shadyacres
Every time I cut an 8 foot 2 x4 I tell myself I just saved another 5 dollar bill


2X4X8 was close to $7!

Eddy G
Member
# Posted: 6 Apr 2021 07:38
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I believe once COVID is under control and trade relations are restored with Canada lumber price will come down again.
It’s not a matter of if but when and how much of those things happen.
All conspiracy theories and political affiliations aside one way or another these things will happen in one way or another.
COVID will be under control
Partnerships with Canada will improve
And lumber prices will come down.
It’s the optimist in me.

toyota_mdt_tech
Member
# Posted: 6 Apr 2021 08:17
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Well, I am committed to the roof on the shelter, lots of planning and coordinating with my free labor crew..... so I and following through, but until this settles down, I am not buying a single stick of wood, it can rot on their shelves, and when it does, they will be dealing to sell it.

Eddy, you are right, it will settle down, because its not going to sell much at those prices.

ICC
Member
# Posted: 6 Apr 2021 09:31
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Quoting: toyota_mdt_tech
because its not going to sell much at those prices.


It has not stopped new house starts. Not yet.

zorro
Member
# Posted: 6 Apr 2021 10:41
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Price increases are crazy and not sure how or when they will come back down.............if people keep paying the inflated prices, not much incentive to reduce them back to pre COVID levels

Same with ammo!!

But people are still buying and therefore, prices could remain high

Not specific to lumbar alone, but clearly linked - we bought a new build home in October and due for completion end of May

From purchase in October until today, the base home price has increased by $85000..............that is simply insane

Not entirely down to lumber, but that is in there - also need to look at supply and demand, people moving out of cities, lack of materials and construction guys, etc, etc

snobdds
Member
# Posted: 6 Apr 2021 11:28
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The government has pumped 6 trillion dollars into the economy since 2020 started. They want 2.2 more as we speak.

There is so much money out in circulation, these prices are not going to be coming down for a while. Money has lost 25% of it's value since 2020 started and prices on most thing has increase about as much. Simple economics.

Prices will come down a little, maybe 5-10%, but there is just too much money out there for the prices to ever come back down to pre covid prices.

hueyjazz
Member
# Posted: 6 Apr 2021 12:30
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Stimulus package is making for an economy where people don't want to take the lower paying jobs. They can make more or a little less by sitting home doing nothing for employment here in US.

Every business I know people are begging to hire and the jobs have gone unfilled. Lumber mills among others are taking a hit on this.

gcrank1
Member
# Posted: 6 Apr 2021 12:31
Reply 


Yep, Econ 101. For instance:
If you double the money supply you cut the purchase power of every dollar in circulation in half.

rpe
Member
# Posted: 8 Apr 2021 10:32
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Canadian prices for 3/8" ply from my local Homeless Despot: $20/sheet last spring, $28/sheet last September, $35.55 two months ago, $49.98 today.

I agree - it's not the price of the products going up, it's the value of our dollar going down... Not good.

ICC
Member
# Posted: 8 Apr 2021 10:42
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If it was just the money value why hasn't the price of everything else not gone up the same as lumber?

rpe
Member
# Posted: 8 Apr 2021 10:52
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Give it time, I'm afraid... Some will rise more than others, but I suspect most are on their way up. Of course there's more than one factor at play here, but as gcrank mentioned, when the printing presses are running flat out it certainly puts downward pressure on the currency.

gcrank1
Member
# Posted: 8 Apr 2021 11:16
Reply 


With currency devaluation all boats rise but not at the same rate. And there is no 'free market' unless one is maybe in the black market, all are manipulated.
There is NO WAY that prices can ever return after all this fiat 'stimulus' money is pumped in. History tells the tale for those who read it.

snobdds
Member
# Posted: 8 Apr 2021 11:18 - Edited by: snobdds
Reply 


Prices are not a monolithic thing that evenly impacts products and services by the same amounts. In economics, there is a thing called elasticities. Basically, some goods and services could increase by 1000% and people would still buy it at normal demand rates. However a funny phenomia happens to goods that have high elasticities like milk or tobacco, they are the most price stable. It's the goods that have elasticities that when the price increases, the demand decreases that see the largest price volatility.

Lumber as a commodity should have a low elasticity to demand, but it's acting like the opposite. This usually happens because large arbitrage opportunities were anticipated by institutional money and they plowed into it. When that play evaporates, the money will flow somewhere else and prices will come down. The problem we have now is there is just so much money out in the economy right now. People want to convert this fiat money into a real tangible asset like a home. Even at high prices, they still need to put the money somewhere and that means this supply constraint will persist. Lumber will find a new equilibrium and it will be a lot higher than in years past.

rpe
Member
# Posted: 8 Apr 2021 14:33
Reply 


Thanks for the thoughts, snobdds. Crazy times we live in. I sold a speedboat last April, and felt bad for the guy buying it. I thought it would be dropping in value due to the whole pandemic thing. Now it's obvious I should have held on to it to sell this spring. Or even better, I should have taken the money and bought skids of plywood!

paulz
Member
# Posted: 9 Apr 2021 19:58
Reply 


I bought plywood today for $16 a sheet! At Home Depot, new! 4x8s!

Yeah, it's thin, what I needed. Smooth though, nice looking stuff. Walking down the isle looking the other price tags was crazy, $50, $60! I figured this stuff would be about $30.

Made in Viet Nam!
ply.jpg
ply.jpg


socceronly
Member
# Posted: 11 Apr 2021 01:08
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Cancelled building this year. Pretty disappointed. I was always cutting it thin cost wise... lol

I started to think about building with rocks....

paulz
Member
# Posted: 11 Apr 2021 10:42
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Quoting: socceronly
I started to think about building with rocks....


Lol. Haybales..

NorthRick
Member
# Posted: 11 Apr 2021 12:01
Reply 


Quoting: toyota_mdt_tech
2X4X8 was close to $7!


Lucky you. $8.50 here.

gcrank1
Member
# Posted: 13 Apr 2021 12:53
Reply 


Soc, see if you can find a local building to tear down/remove so you dont waste time and get lumber to recycle.

snobdds
Member
# Posted: 13 Apr 2021 13:49
Reply 


Quoting: gcrank1
Soc, see if you can find a local building to tear down/remove so you dont waste time and get lumber to recycle.


Have you ever tried to drive a nail through a old board?

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