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ICC
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# Posted: 13 May 2021 21:30 - Edited by: ICC
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Not good
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Brettny
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# Posted: 14 May 2021 05:21
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Have they ever shown up white? No drought?
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Nobadays
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# Posted: 14 May 2021 07:47
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Forecasters are optimistic that AZ will return to near normal monsoon season this year... hopefully it comes soon enough they don't burn up first! So far there have at least 5 fires near our primary home in Payson, AZ. I will say, watching the weather that it is far cooler...nearer to normal... this year at this time than the last couple of years.
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paulz
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# Posted: 14 May 2021 07:50
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We're 'only' in Extreme Drought on the coast. Still, the local reservoir is dry. It surprises me how long the water officials wait to recommend conserving. They just announced watering lawns only twice a week! I'll bet the Vegas casinos won't shut down until Lake Mead is dry.
If it's brown, flush it down. If it's yellow, let it mellow was the old mantra.
The new one will be Go Outside.
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ICC
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# Posted: 14 May 2021 09:05 - Edited by: ICC
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Quoting: Brettny Have they ever shown up white? No drought?
I don't know about "white" as the SW has always been drier than the east coast. But the 1980's were much wetter. Areas around me that are brown right now were green in the mid 80's. The 40's and the 1900's were also wetter according to both NM and family history. NM official records go back 127 years and right now is the driest that has ever been recorded. Reservoirs throughout the west are pretty much all as low as they have been since they were made. I believe that after Memorial Day weekend we will see some national forest lockdowns. I'd close areas now but it is a political hot potato.
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gcrank1
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# Posted: 14 May 2021 09:16
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Dont know if it is true, but decades ago I heard that the hydro-electric dams and much of the irrigation systems that were built were based on the water flow of an above normal period of time?
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snobdds
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# Posted: 14 May 2021 12:02
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Most statistical analysis operates via a range of outcomes. Predicting of one target is never accurate.
Furthermore look at a dam. It's built high enough to account for many different levels of water. How often do you hear of them having to raise a dam because they did not anticipate higher water flows.
I would say you herd a wise tale.
I know the snow pack for the head waters of the Colorado, Platte, Arkansas, and Missouri are normal.
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Atlincabin
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# Posted: 15 May 2021 08:58
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I'm going to argue based on the SNOTEL website:
https://www.weather.gov/bou/co_snowpack
that snowpack in CO is below normal. Most of the sites are reporting 70-80% of normal in terms of water content. It is VERY dry where I live in the Gunnison basin.
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ICC
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# Posted: 15 May 2021 09:43
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Even if the CO snowpack was normal it is not going to be a good year downstream. The ground in CO was much drier than normal the summer and fall of 2020. The snow melts and will replenish moisture locally before running downstream.
As to were dams built during a period of more precipitation? Probably. We, humans, are good at not being able to anticipate the future, and at thinking we are smart enough to re-engineer nature. However, we are stuck wih what we have done for now. The Colorado river no longer reaches the sea. It looks like we are going to eventually run it dry at certain times of the year.
Hundreds of miles to the east of the rockies the Ogallala-High Plains Aquifer is being used up, not replenishing.
Too many people and too many people doing unsustainable things.
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paulz
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# Posted: 18 Jun 2021 18:33 - Edited by: paulz
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Too hot to work much today, I quit at 11. Just reading about lake Mead, seriously low. Out here on the coast not much better. They say another dry winter and we're done for. That's if we survive the fire season. My beautiful redwoods will be in peril.
So what's the answer? Too much water in eastern states. A bit far to dig a trench.
Western real estate could get very affordable.
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Steve_S
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# Posted: 19 Jun 2021 06:22
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I was just thinking that a couple of years ago, News Agencies kept saying "This is a rare once in a 100 years event" on several issues. But then they realized these "One in a 100 Years" events were happening far too frequently... Now they don't print that anymore, even if true.
I have friends that were in California, original settler family with large farm owned since Way back When. Last year their 1200' deep well were pulling up only salty brine. It was so bad, they finally gave up, packed it in and walked away. Few hundred acres that will never support crops again. He tells me that is is becoming a pretty common problem and it's because they've dried (drained) the shallow & deep aquifers which are now collapsing and the grounds are subsiding (compressing) which means those aquifers will never retain water again. Apparently a few places the subsidence can be measured monthly and it is bad.
The IRONY... Water IS LIFE, without it, no crops, no drinking no living. But some are so willing to pipe Oil thousands of miles - water your crops with that ? Don't think so. Would anyone Balk if say a Pipeline was built to bring water from a Northern Wet location to Parched California ? At least if it leaks the cleanup would not be an issue right...
WHAT IF/WHEN:
The bulk water keeps vanishing, pretty soon crop production will fall even faster (slowing every year for a decade now) and when the "Western States Breadbasket" can no longer provide food for the masses, what will happen ?
Envision the consequences of food shortages & escalating costs ?
Without water folks will start moving and migrating elsewhere and it won't be a trickle, what will happen ?
40 Million people +/- live in California alone, how many do you think would leave if there is no water ? Or when the little 3water that is left is too costly ?
PS: No amount of Desalination can support the population AND Farming concurrently, the costs would be beyond ludicrous.
I read a couple of articles at Phys.org and elsewhere and some project that if this drought continues at this pace or close, that Lake Mead and other reservoirs will be dry by 2025. A peculiar & Interesting dateline.... Seems that so many things are all flowing into that "2025 timeframe", a Convergence if you will...
Coincidence ? I think not.
Coincidence is running into an old chum from school 20 years ago who is shopping at the same store...
Prophetic ? or ??
BTW California and the Western Food basket states are not the only ones in a drought, other regions around the planet are having similar issues.
The edge of a Huge Abyss is not that far away, can we change direction in time to avoid it ?
Imagine if 20 Million people decide to leave California and move "inland" what will happen ? They won't be the only ones either, they'd be joining an ever increasing number of "migrants" and that won't go over well... just look at current feelings about Migrants as an obvious example.
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Brettny
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# Posted: 19 Jun 2021 08:03
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Quoting: Steve_S Imagine if 20 Million people decide to leave California and move "inland" what will happen ? They won't be the only ones either, they'd be joining an ever increasing number of "migrants" and that won't go over well... just look at current feelings about Migrants as an obvious example.
It's not just CA. Here in NY we see a whole lot of out of state plates. Majority of them are from CA.
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ICC
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# Posted: 19 Jun 2021 08:50
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Too many people is a big part of the problem
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toyota_mdt_tech
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# Posted: 19 Jun 2021 12:18 - Edited by: toyota_mdt_tech
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Scare tactic, my area shows abnormally dry, its actually been abnormally wet, in fact, I finally had to turn my sprinkler system on last night for this AM watering. I have only watered 3 times this year, usually a good chunk on may and all of June.
SW has always been dry
Lake mead is a reservoir and as long as you keep taking more from it each year, the demand is greater than the supply, its going to go away. California is consuming a huge chunk of it.
Stop irrigating? Then where does the food come from?
Population is increasing, so demand is also increasing.
We go through warming and cooling cycles on a smaller scale over a 40 to 50 yr cycle.
There is also Milankovitch cycle that affect this too. Probably the biggest contributor, we have zero control over it.
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paulz
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# Posted: 19 Jun 2021 20:03 - Edited by: paulz
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Rainfall totals in my county for the last 100 years. Looks like a heavy year makes up for a couple of light ones.
Saw on the news a politician was talking about changing the earth's axis as a solution. Sounds simple enough..
Right now I'm pissed at the the weather prognosticators. Forecast at my city dwelling was 84 today, down from 100 last few days, so we returned from our cool coastal cabin to get the mail, wash cloths.. It was 95 when we got here. I realize it's not an exact science but over 10 degrees off? It's not a big city, 50k people, maybe 25 square miles, flat as a pancake.
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Brettny
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# Posted: 19 Jun 2021 23:11
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Quoting: toyota_mdt_tech Stop irrigating? Then where does the food come from?
All the info I could find on the states affected was that CA produced 13% of our food. Where in the state idk. Didnt seam like any of the other south states did more than 2-5% from the info I could find. I'm sure things in the region will be affected but on the whole other side of the country we have had N abnormally wet year with sun.
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toyota_mdt_tech
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# Posted: 19 Jun 2021 23:47
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Quoting: Brettny but on the whole other side of the country we have had N abnormally wet year with sun.
That is what I have seen in the pacific northwest too. So far, been one of the cooler, wetter springs.
We are finally headed for some heat now.
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snobdds
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# Posted: 22 Jun 2021 18:30
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So Wyoming is the head waters for the Colorado, Platte, Arkansas, and Missouri rivers. Wyoming had an average to a little above average snowpack year.
We are allocated a certain amount of water to fill our reservoirs then we send the extra on down. California did a Shi**y and prevented our Coal from being shipped from the port of Long beach to China. So we use to send a lot of extra water down the Colorado as we could not keep it all. Now that this coal thing is going on, we divert this water to huge wells and recharge our aquafers with the extra water.
We're not taking anything were not allocated to take, it's just southern states got use to the extra water. I don't know what to think, I hate tick for tack things...but mutual destruction is unavoidable.
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toyota_mdt_tech
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# Posted: 22 Jun 2021 20:35
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Quoting: snobdds California did a Shi**y and prevented our Coal from being shipped from the port of Long beach to China. So we use to send a lot of extra water down the Colorado as we could not keep it all. Now that this coal thing is going on, we divert this water to huge wells and recharge our aquafers with the extra water.
Yeah, they are going to be seeing rolling blackouts etc, be like living in a 3rd world country when it comes to energy.
I wouldnt send anything petroleum based after they tried to sue oil company's for global warming and rising sea water.
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paulz
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# Posted: 22 Jun 2021 21:01
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Quoting: toyota_mdt_tech Yeah, they are going to be seeing rolling blackouts etc, be like living in a 3rd world country when it comes to energy.
Not me! 
Actually we had them last year. When it's dark I fire up all my lights and send photos to my neighbors.
Had a surprise this morning. Place was soaked! No rain was in the forecast. Didn't get much but it was nice to see, and smelled great.
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toyota_mdt_tech
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# Posted: 22 Jun 2021 23:17
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