|
| Author |
Message |
basrijn
Member
|
# Posted: 18 Feb 2015 02:30
Reply
Hi,
Just saw this posted:
http://offgridquest.com/news/tesla-motors-announces-a-new-home-batter?utm_content=buf fer4d333&utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin.com&utm_campaign=buffer
Elon Musk has a pretty impressive track record on delivering what he promises. Will be interesting what sort of capacity and price point this will end up in
Bas
|
|
Nirky
Member
|
# Posted: 18 Feb 2015 03:05
Reply
I'd like to fire my electric company. 
Even if Musk comes through, like any new technology, these new batteries will be very expensive for several years until competition brings the price down.
|
|
creeky
Member
|
# Posted: 18 Feb 2015 08:55
Reply
it'll be some sort of lithium battery I'm guessing. with his "giga"factory he will bring some competition to the field.
he does sort of look towards the higher end of the market tho.
|
|
basrijn
Member
|
# Posted: 18 Feb 2015 23:15
Reply
Hi,
@Nirky, as Creeky mentioned below. Tesla is planning a massive production facility that will out by itself the same amount of batteries as the 2013 WORLDWIDE production. In their official releases they forecast that prices will drop by about 30% (http://www.teslamotors.com/sites/default/files/blog_attachments/gigafactory.pdf)
The factory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gigafactory) should come online in 2017 and apparently the physical form factor will be the very common 18650 cell (http://goo.gl/xMeFTE).
It will definitely be more expensive then lead-acid, but it will be interesting to see how this market changes
Bas
|
|
Nirky
Member
|
# Posted: 18 Feb 2015 23:34
Reply
Factory maybe finished in 2017. Could be later.
Batteries 30% cheaper in 2017, but 30% off of what kWh price? Doesn't say.
And how would that 30% off price compare to competitors in 2017? We can't know yet.
Like most new technology, it's very expensive for several years until competition and manufacturing advances drive costs lower.
So I would not expect these batteries to be available as alternatives for us as home energy consumers until 2019-2020 at the earliest, if indeed the per/kWh price ever comes down enough to be competitive.
Lot of things up in the air.
|
|
creeky
Member
|
# Posted: 19 Feb 2015 09:15
Reply
These batteries are already available. On line I've seen folks have been using LifePO4 (LFP) for 4 years now. They are all very happy.
Balqon has a plug and play model. BMS the whole bit.
Because you can safely discharge to 70% dod vs 20% dod on lead acid and get a longer lifespan, your battery pack need only be 1/2 the size. or indeed less.
by example. my lead acid battery pack weighs 720 lbs. it gives me 3kw of "usable" storage (14kwtotal).
the balqon i am looking at has, at 70% discharge, 6 kw of usable power. it weighs 250lbs. 1/3 the weight. which do you want to haul into your off grid location?
sure, it's twice the price. but you're getting twice the power. and no maintenance. no watering. no worries about self discharge. etc. etc. etc. and in all likely, two or three times the lifespan.*
the mere fact that you can partially discharge and leave for months makes it superior to lead acid for off grid life. remember. one of the many fast ways to kill a lead acid pack is to leave it for months self discharging.
Nothing is up in the air. This tech is available today and it is way superior to lead acid. way-y-y-y-y-y-y.
The nice thing about the Tesla factory is it will increase competition. sweet.
*according to princeton phds, see the paper. the last page sums up, but it's a good read comparison of battery storage for solar
|
|
rmak
Member
|
# Posted: 19 Feb 2015 09:16
Reply
I love the ending of the linked article, "Who's ready to fire the monopoly power company?" That would be me.
After doing a small solar outfit at the cabin, my wife and I have talked and dreamed about doing something with our home. We are rural, and our 1875 farmhouse is oil heat and everything else is electric. We burn wood to offset the heating costs, but we can't come up with a way to deal with the ever increasing electric expense. The local electric company has proven to be manipulative and dishonest. In the past they have "estimated" and jacked up our bill hundreds of dollars at will. We have since caught these phony excuses for not reading the meter. Of course, that is above and beyond the steady increases and all the secret costs. I'm not sure about anyone else here, but for us, trying to make sense out of an electric bill is a near impossibility. Calling the company for an explanation just muddies the waters further. Sorry for the rant.
Come on Tesla, do your thing!
|
|
Nirky
Member
|
# Posted: 19 Feb 2015 13:27
Reply
Quoting: creeky sure, it's twice the price. but you're getting twice the power.
That means it's cost competitive already. At 1/3 of the weight.
So are people already buying this new type of battery for their home solar systems instead of the inferior & heavy lead acid batteries?
|
|
|
creeky
Member
|
# Posted: 19 Feb 2015 15:25
Reply
Yes. Lots of folks are buying these batteries. They are "new." And more expensive upfront. You know some folks are reluctant to give up their buggy whips.
Fyi. I got kicked off a solar website (you know it by it's initials which appear here occasionally) because I posted the link to the Princeton article. The web guy put a comment up that "phds" can be wrong and then closed the post and moved it to the "expert" area. I was kicked off the site.
When I first added LFP info, all of it correct and attributable, on the "off grid" solar section my post was removed and I was kicked off for a week.
At no time was i contacted and at no time did anyone show that what I said was exaggerated or wrong.
The solar sites are in the business of selling equipment. They don't care about your time and money. And for reasons I certainly don't understand, they are actively suppressing LFP.
Seems weird to me. But, hey. Stranger things have happened. They're losing. I mean when California builds the worlds biggest solar storage facility with LFP batteries. The times they are a'changin'.
IMHO, unless you're building a small solar system where the cost of batteries is so low that it doesn't matter. As of now you're wasting time & money if you use lead acid.
|
|
Nirky
Member
|
# Posted: 19 Feb 2015 18:20
Reply
If they are priced the same per kWh as you say but cost more upfront, that mean then they come in only larger capacities.
What is the smallest capacity currently on the market, and about how much is it?
|
|
MtnDon
Member
|
# Posted: 19 Feb 2015 18:57
Reply
Per rated Kwh LFP costs more than FLA.
With LFP you would not need a battery bank with as many rated KwH as with an FLA battery bank.
When you look at the usable capacity of FLA vs LFP, the LFP still cost you more upfront. Considerably so at present, IMO. It is when you look at the projected longer lifespan of LFP that you might very well be saving money by the time that end of life is reached.
|
|
creeky
Member
|
# Posted: 19 Feb 2015 19:54
Reply
Nirky. balqon is the only plug and play lfp battery I know of now For us little guys.
Let me know if you find others.
I see speculation Apple is getting into the game also. They've been hiring engineers away from another lfp mfct. A123.
Interesting times for sure.
(Some stats show that only 10% of the power coming out of a dam ends up being used by the end user. Imagine gathering solar power and storing it right at home. All in a 90% efficient system. )
|
|
creeky
Member
|
# Posted: 20 Feb 2015 10:02
Reply
I did find Ping batteries in Australia. Couple of companies selling LFP packs in Oz.
They are very reasonable with their specs. And say that over the lifespan of the battery. All things being equal. A 10% cost savings with LFP.
I also view LFP as a quality issue. Storage is safer with no off gassing; low and acceptable self discharge (you can leave the battery for up to a year). Lower weight. No maintenance.
etc etc. see this guys posts for more info. he's posted 4 articles. URL they present some specifications, cost estimates, and general benefits.
|
|
ClimberKev
Member
|
# Posted: 20 Feb 2015 15:35
Reply
Buy stock in Elan's solar panel company...SolarCity (SCTY).
|
|
|
